Base120 · Perspective

Reference Class Framing

P · Perspective

Select comparable situations to inform judgment and avoid uniqueness bias

Model code
P14
Transformation
P (Perspective) — Reframe problems by shifting viewpoints and identifying foundational truths.
Priority
14 of 20
Framework
HUMMBL Base120 — 120 mental models across 6 transformations

When to use

"Use when making predictions or judgments about a unique situation. Instead of reasoning from the inside (this specific case), find a reference class of comparable situations and use their outcomes as a prior. Counters uniqueness bias."

Example

"Estimating a custom software project — instead of reasoning from the specifics (our team is faster), use the reference class of similar custom software projects (which overrun by 50-100% on average). Adjust from the base rate, not from optimism."

Common misuse

"Dismissing the reference class because this case is different. Every case feels different from the inside; that is why the outside view exists. The question is not whether this case is different but whether the differences are large enough to override the base rate."

Also known as

Reference Class ForecastingBase Rate Analysis

Related models

P1IN2RE2