Base120 · Decomposition
Scenario Decomposition
Partition future possibilities into discrete, mutually exclusive scenarios
When to use
"Use when the future is uncertain and you need to plan for multiple possibilities. Partition the future into discrete, mutually exclusive scenarios. Develop strategies for each, and identify actions that are robust across all."
Example
"Three scenarios for a market — growth (30% probability), stagnation (50%), decline (20%). For each, develop a strategy. Identify actions that are robust across all three (e.g., reduce fixed costs) versus actions that are scenario-specific (e.g., expand only in the growth scenario)."
Common misuse
"Creating scenarios that are not mutually exclusive or that do not cover the full possibility space. Overlapping scenarios double-count; gaps miss possibilities."