Base120 · Decomposition

Decision Tree Expansion

DE · Decomposition

Map choices and their consequences as branching paths

Model code
DE15
Transformation
DE (Decomposition) — Break problems into factors, layers, and independent subproblems.
Priority
15 of 20
Framework
HUMMBL Base120 — 120 mental models across 6 transformations

When to use

"Use when a decision involves multiple sequential choices with uncertain outcomes. Map the choices and consequences as a tree, with probabilities and values at each branch. Enables calculation of expected value for each path."

Example

"Build vs buy decision tree — build (success 70%, cost $500K; failure 30%, cost $800K) vs buy (success 90%, cost $300K; failure 10%, cost $400K). Expected value — build = $590K, buy = $310K. The tree makes the trade-off explicit."

Common misuse

"Drawing the tree without probabilities or values. A decision tree without numbers is a flowchart, not a decision analysis. The value comes from quantifying the branches."

Also known as

Decision TreeBranching Analysis

Related models

DE18CO15IN9