Base120 · Recursion

Calibration Loops

RE · Recursion

Repeatedly check predictions against outcomes to improve forecasting accuracy

Model code
RE11
Transformation
RE (Recursion) — Improve iteratively through feedback, reflection, and self-referential refinement.
Priority
11 of 20
Framework
HUMMBL Base120 — 120 mental models across 6 transformations

When to use

"Use when making repeated predictions. Track predictions against outcomes, measure calibration (are you right as often as your confidence suggests), and adjust. Improves forecasting accuracy over time."

Example

"A team estimates project timelines. They track — predicted 2 weeks, actual 3 weeks; predicted 1 week, actual 1.5 weeks; predicted 4 weeks, actual 6 weeks. The pattern (actual = 1.5x predicted) is a calibration error. Future estimates multiply by 1.5."

Common misuse

"Tracking predictions without tracking confidence. A prediction of 2 weeks at 90% confidence and at 50% confidence are very different. Calibration requires both the prediction and the confidence level."

Also known as

Prediction CalibrationForecasting Feedback

Related models

RE12RE2P14