Base120 · Inversion

Counterfactual Negation

IN · Inversion

Imagine outcomes if key decision had been reversed

Model code
IN17
Transformation
IN (Inversion) — Improve by removing, reversing, or stress-testing assumptions.
Priority
17 of 20
Framework
HUMMBL Base120 — 120 mental models across 6 transformations

When to use

"Use when evaluating a decision that has already been made. Imagine the opposite decision was taken and compare the projected outcomes. Counterfactuals reveal whether the decision was good or merely safe."

Example

"A company chose to build in-house instead of buying. Counterfactual — if they had bought, they would have saved 6 months of engineering time and shipped 2 quarters earlier. The counterfactual reveals the build decision cost them market timing, not just engineering time."

Common misuse

"Constructing counterfactuals with perfect hindsight — assuming you would have made the optimal choice in the counterfactual scenario. The counterfactual must use the information available at the time, not what is known now."

Also known as

Counterfactual AnalysisWhat-If Reversal

Related models

IN13P14RE2